The country as a whole is most likely to receive above-normal rainfall

16 Apr 2024: Rainfall, Secretary, of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr M. Ravichandran told the media today that the country as a whole is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon from June to September 2024.

The country as a whole is most likely to receive above-normal rainfall 

Briefing the media about the summary of the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall today in a press conference held at the National Media Centre, New Delhi, he said there will be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole is 87 cm based on data from 1971-2020.

Dr M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences

Dr Ravichandran said, the forecast is based on both dynamic and statistical models, and it suggests above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except some areas of Northwest, East and Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is likely. He told the media that the expected La Nina, positive IOD and below snow cover over the northern hemisphere would be favourable for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season of 2024.

Giving a detailed presentation DG, IMD, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and the Climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions by the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions during the second half of monsoon season.

 Dr M. Mohapatra, DG, Indian Meteorological Department

He also informed the media that at present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing and Climate model forecasts indicate positive IOD conditions likely to develop during the monsoon season.

He added that since Sea Surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean are known to have a strong influence on the Indian Monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins.

Dr Mohapatra further said that the Northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) was below normal which indicates above rainfall this monsoon season. Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent monsoon season rainfall. He said IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2024.

Probability forecasts for the Seasonal (Jun to Sep 2024) rainfall over the country as a whole are given below in the table:

Probabilistic rainfall forecast for the monsoon season (June – September), 2024

Fig.1.Probability forecast of tercile categories* (below normal, normal, and above normal) for the seasonal rainfall over India during the monsoon season (June -September), 2024.

 Since 2003, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing the operational long-range forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in two stages. 

The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage or update forecast is issued by the end of May. Since 2021, IMD has implemented a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country by modifying the existing two-stage forecasting strategy. 

The new strategy uses both dynamic and statistical forecasting systems. Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system based on coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction centres, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) is used in the dynamical forecast system.

In continuation to the above forecasts, monthly rainfall forecast is issued around the end of June, July and August respectively for the subsequent month. In addition, quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole and spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts of rainfall for the second half (August-September) of the season are issued around the end of July along with forecasts for August.

Summary of the Forecast of Rainfall during Southwest Monsoon Season, 2024 is as follows:

The rainfall over the country as a whole during monsoon season (June to September) is very likely to be above normal (>106% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).

Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%.

The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole is 87 cm based on data from 1971-2020.

Currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. Climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions by the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions during the second half of the monsoon season.

Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing. Climate model forecasts indicate positive IOD conditions likely to develop during the monsoon season.

Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) was below normal. Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent monsoon season rainfall.

IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2024.

1. Rainfall

2. Precipitation

3. Drizzle

4. Hail

5. Snow

6. Monsoon

7. Weather

8. Cloud

9. Downpour

10. Rainstorm

Citations for you:

[1] https://www.bodonews.info/2020/02/blog-post.html

[2] https://youtu.be/789AyVF8eiU?si=Vivw4jon3zCvMcGT

[3] https://www.bodonews.info/2024/04/president-of-indias-greetings-on-eve-of.html

[4] https://www.bodonews.info/2024/04/cbdt-clarifies-media-reports-claiming.html

[5] https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/rainfall-prediction-using-machine-learning-python/